Gaussian processes for switching regimes

It has been shown that Gaussian processes are a competitive tool for nonparametric regression and classification. Furthermore they are equivalent to neural networks in the limit of an infinite number of neurons. Here we show that the versatility of Gaussian processes at defining different textural characteristics can be used to recognise different regimes in a signal switching between different sources

Nonlinear Analysis of Irregular Variables

The Fourier spectral techniques that are common in Astronomy for analyzing periodic or multi-periodic light-curves lose their usefulness when they are applied to unsteady light-curves. We review some of the novel techniques that have been developed for analyzing irregular stellar light or radial velocity variations, and we describe what useful physical and astronomical information can be gained from their use.Comment: 31 pages, to appear as a chapter in `Nonlinear Stellar Pulsation' in the Astrophysics and Space Science Library (ASSL), Editors: M. Takeuti & D. Sasselo

Reservoir Topology in Deep Echo State Networks

Deep Echo State Networks (DeepESNs) recently extended the applicability of Reservoir Computing (RC) methods towards the field of deep learning. In this paper we study the impact of constrained reservoir topologies in the architectural design of deep reservoirs, through numerical experiments on several RC benchmarks. The major outcome of our investigation is to show the remarkable effect, in terms of predictive performance gain, achieved by the synergy between a deep reservoir construction and a structured organization of the recurrent units in each layer. Our results also indicate that a particularly advantageous architectural setting is obtained in correspondence of DeepESNs where reservoir units are structured according to a permutation recurrent matrix.Comment: Preprint of the paper published in the proceedings of ICANN 201

Gene Function Classification Using Bayesian Models with Hierarchy-Based Priors

We investigate the application of hierarchical classification schemes to the annotation of gene function based on several characteristics of protein sequences including phylogenic descriptors, sequence based attributes, and predicted secondary structure. We discuss three Bayesian models and compare their performance in terms of predictive accuracy. These models are the ordinary multinomial logit (MNL) model, a hierarchical model based on a set of nested MNL models, and a MNL model with a prior that introduces correlations between the parameters for classes that are nearby in the hierarchy. We also provide a new scheme for combining different sources of information. We use these models to predict the functional class of Open Reading Frames (ORFs) from the E. coli genome. The results from all three models show substantial improvement over previous methods, which were based on the C5 algorithm. The MNL model using a prior based on the hierarchy outperforms both the non-hierarchical MNL model and the nested MNL model. In contrast to previous attempts at combining these sources of information, our approach results in a higher accuracy rate when compared to models that use each data source alone. Together, these results show that gene function can be predicted with higher accuracy than previously achieved, using Bayesian models that incorporate suitable prior information

Richness of Deep Echo State Network Dynamics

Reservoir Computing (RC) is a popular methodology for the efficient design of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Recently, the advantages of the RC approach have been extended to the context of multi-layered RNNs, with the introduction of the Deep Echo State Network (DeepESN) model. In this paper, we study the quality of state dynamics in progressively higher layers of DeepESNs, using tools from the areas of information theory and numerical analysis. Our experimental results on RC benchmark datasets reveal the fundamental role played by the strength of inter-reservoir connections to increasingly enrich the representations developed in higher layers. Our analysis also gives interesting insights into the possibility of effective exploitation of training algorithms based on stochastic gradient descent in the RC field.Comment: Preprint of the paper accepted at IWANN 201

Feature signature prediction of a boring process using neural network modeling with confidence bounds

Prediction of machine tool failure has been very important in modern metal cutting operations in order to meet the growing demand for product quality and cost reduction. This paper presents the study of building a neural network model for predicting the behavior of a boring process during its full life cycle. This prediction is achieved by the fusion of the predictions of three principal components extracted as features from the joint time–frequency distributions of energy of the spindle loads observed during the boring process. Furthermore, prediction uncertainty is assessed using nonlinear regression in order to quantify the errors associated with the prediction. The results show that the implemented Elman recurrent neural network is a viable method for the prediction of the feature behavior of the boring process, and that the constructed confidence bounds provide information crucial for subsequent maintenance decision making based on the predicted cutting tool degradation.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45845/1/170_2005_Article_114.pd

Identifying hazardousness of sewer pipeline gas mixture using classification methods: a comparative study

In this work, we formulated a real-world problem related to sewer pipeline gas detection using the classification-based approaches. The primary goal of this work was to identify the hazardousness of sewer pipeline to offer safe and non-hazardous access to sewer pipeline workers so that the human fatalities, which occurs due to the toxic exposure of sewer gas components, can be avoided. The dataset acquired through laboratory tests, experiments, and various literature sources was organized to design a predictive model that was able to identify/classify hazardous and non-hazardous situation of sewer pipeline. To design such prediction model, several classification algorithms were used and their performances were evaluated and compared, both empirically and statistically, over the collected dataset. In addition, the performances of several ensemble methods were analyzed to understand the extent of improvement offered by these methods. The result of this comprehensive study showed that the instance-based learning algorithm performed better than many other algorithms such as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function network, support vector machine, reduced pruning tree. Similarly, it was observed that multi-scheme ensemble approach enhanced the performance of base predictors

Parameter selection for and implementation of a web-based decision-support tool to predict extubation outcome in premature infants

BACKGROUND: Approximately 30% of intubated preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) will fail attempted extubation, requiring reintubation and mechanical ventilation. Although ventilator technology and monitoring of premature infants have improved over time, optimal extubation remains challenging. Furthermore, extubation decisions for premature infants require complex informational processing, techniques implicitly learned through clinical practice. Computer-aided decision-support tools would benefit inexperienced clinicians, especially during peak neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) census. METHODS: A five-step procedure was developed to identify predictive variables. Clinical expert (CE) thought processes comprised one model. Variables from that model were used to develop two mathematical models for the decision-support tool: an artificial neural network (ANN) and a multivariate logistic regression model (MLR). The ranking of the variables in the three models was compared using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The best performing model was used in a web-based decision-support tool with a user interface implemented in Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) and the mathematical model employing the ANN. RESULTS: CEs identified 51 potentially predictive variables for extubation decisions for an infant on mechanical ventilation. Comparisons of the three models showed a significant difference between the ANN and the CE (p = 0.0006). Of the original 51 potentially predictive variables, the 13 most predictive variables were used to develop an ANN as a web-based decision-tool. The ANN processes user-provided data and returns the prediction 0–1 score and a novelty index. The user then selects the most appropriate threshold for categorizing the prediction as a success or failure. Furthermore, the novelty index, indicating the similarity of the test case to the training case, allows the user to assess the confidence level of the prediction with regard to how much the new data differ from the data originally used for the development of the prediction tool. CONCLUSION: State-of-the-art, machine-learning methods can be employed for the development of sophisticated tools to aid clinicians' decisions. We identified numerous variables considered relevant for extubation decisions for mechanically ventilated premature infants with RDS. We then developed a web-based decision-support tool for clinicians which can be made widely available and potentially improve patient care world wide

Non-linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Forecast Short-Term Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic Energy Predictions

Nowadays, green energy is considered as a viable solution to hinder CO2 emissions and greenhouse effects. Indeed, it is expected that Renewable Energy Sources (RES) will cover 40% of the total energy request by 2040. This will move forward decentralized and cooperative power distribution systems also called smart grids. Among RES, solar energy will play a crucial role. However, reliable models and tools are needed to forecast and estimate with a good accuracy the renewable energy production in short-term time periods. These tools will unlock new services for smart grid management. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for implementing two different non-linear autoregressive neural networks to forecast Global Horizontal Solar Irradiance (GHI) in short-term time periods (i.e. from future 15 to 120min). Both neural networks have been implemented, trained and validated exploiting a dataset consisting of four years of solar radiation values collected by a real weather station. We also present the experimental results discussing and comparing the accuracy of both neural networks. Then, the resulting GHI forecast is given as input to a Photovoltaic simulator to predict energy production in short-term time periods. Finally, we present the results of this Photovoltaic energy estimation discussing also their accuracy